The live-action Moana movie is on track to become one of Disney’s biggest box office disasters. It features Catherine Laga‘aia and Dwayne Johnson in leading roles.

How much is the live-action Moana movie now expected to make?

Last month, Disney’s live-action Moana movie was projected to make between $80 million and $105 million in its opening domestic weekend. It was also expected to earn at least $300 million during its entire theatrical run in North America. However, the latest projections suggest that outcome is now unlikely.

According to the latest update regarding its box office prediction, the live-action Moana is now projected to open somewhere around $45 million to $60 million domestically. If those projections hold, the film could face a disappointing theatrical performance relative to its reported budget of $200 million.

Many expected the live-action adaptation to become a major hit because of the popularity of Disney’s Moana franchise. But it’s not going to happen, based on what the latest predictions are indicating.

The Moana franchise kicked off in 2016, with the first animated film making over $680 million worldwide, against a budget of $150 million. The sequel, Moana 2, which released in 2024, went on to earn over $1 billion globally, against a budget of $150 million.

Speaking more of the live-action Moana movie, it’s helmed by Thomas Kail. Although current box office projections are modest, a recent update from Dwayne Johnson suggests that Disney is going to expand the Moana franchise, especially on the side of animation.

During a recent media interaction, the actor revealed that Moana 3 is happening. When asked about the next installment, he replied, “Yes, we have talked about ‘Moana 3,’ yes.” Johnson also mentioned that Jared Bush and Dana Ledoux Miller will write the third film.

The live-action Moana will release in theaters this week on July 10, 2026.